Luc Rongier -
2 weeks ago In summary
• Ryanair warns Europe airfares may rise 10% to 20% in 2027• Higher fuel costs and weak hedging are squeezing airlines
• U.S. travelers may see fewer cheap intra-Europe flights
Americans planning a Europe trip in 2027 may want to prepare for a much more expensive flight map. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary is warning that European airfares could rise by 10% to 20% over the next 12 months, a jump he says could become the largest increase in the continent’s history.
The warning comes as airlines face sharply higher jet fuel prices, reduced protection from fuel hedging and the prospect of fewer seats in the market next year. For U.S. travelers who rely on Ryanair and other low-cost carriers to move cheaply between European cities, that combination could make some of the continent’s famous bargain fares much harder to find.
Ryanair Says the Fuel Protection That Kept Ticket Prices Lower in 2026 Is About to Weaken Dramatically
O’Leary’s warning is largely about what happens from spring 2027 onward. Many European airlines protected themselves from fuel-price swings by buying fuel in advance at fixed prices, a strategy known as hedging. Ryanair had secured much of its 2026 fuel needs at around $67 a barrel, shielding the carrier from much of the recent surge in energy prices.
That protection becomes far weaker next year. Speaking in Brussels on October 20, O’Leary said: « We’re 85% unhedged next year, and most of the other European airlines are in a similar position. »
He also warned that Ryanair’s effective oil cost could roughly double compared with the price it had locked in for 2026. According to Euronews, jet fuel prices in Europe and the CIS averaged $207.61 a barrel during the week ending October 16, nearly 128% higher than a year earlier.
The rise has been driven by geopolitical tensions and disruption around major energy supply routes, leaving airlines exposed to much higher operating costs just as their existing hedge contracts begin to expire.
O’Leary Says Fares Could Rise by as Much as 20%, and He Is Not Talking About Ryanair Alone
The most striking part of the warning is the scale. O’Leary told reporters: « You’re going to see airfares rise next year in Europe, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%. You’re going to see the biggest increase in airfares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months. »
Reuters also reported the warning, noting that O’Leary expects the impact to be felt across the wider European airline industry rather than only at Ryanair.
That distinction matters for travelers. If one carrier raises fares while competitors keep prices low, passengers can simply switch airlines. If the entire industry faces the same fuel shock, competitive pressure becomes less effective at keeping fares down. The result could be a broader rise in ticket prices, particularly on routes where competition is already limited.
Fewer Seats in the Market Could Make the Airfare Problem Even Worse
Higher fuel costs are only one part of the equation. O’Leary also expects fewer seats to be available in Europe in 2027 because of airline bankruptcies, takeovers and capacity reductions.
That matters because airfares are heavily influenced by supply. If airlines cut flights while demand remains strong, the remaining seats become easier to sell at higher prices. Ryanair itself has already demonstrated how quickly capacity can disappear. The airline recently announced plans to remove 20 routes and 1.1 million seats from its Belgian winter schedule after the country decided to raise its aviation tax.
O’Leary has repeatedly argued that higher airport charges and government taxes make certain markets less attractive and has moved aircraft toward countries where Ryanair believes operating costs are lower. For travelers, that can mean fewer flight times, fewer backup options and higher prices on routes that suddenly have less competition.
What This Means for Americans Planning a Europe Trip in 2027
The warning is particularly relevant for U.S. travelers who build multi-city European vacations around low-cost airlines. Ryanair does not fly between Europe and the United States, but Americans frequently use the carrier after arriving in cities such as London, Dublin, Paris, Rome or Madrid.
Those short flights have historically made it possible to add another country or city to a trip for surprisingly little money. A €20 or €30 fare is unlikely to disappear entirely, but if O’Leary’s forecast proves accurate, the number of ultra-cheap seats could shrink considerably.
Travelers who know their dates may have more reason to book intra-European flights earlier rather than assume low fares will still be available weeks before departure. The same is true for routes served by only one or two low-cost carriers, where reductions in capacity can cause prices to rise quickly.
The Warning Is Dramatic, but It Is Still a Forecast Rather Than a Guaranteed 20% Increase
Travelers should not assume every European airfare will automatically rise by 20%. Prices will continue to vary by destination, travel date, competition and demand. Some routes may see modest increases, while others could remain highly competitive.
O’Leary also has a reputation for making unusually direct public statements about airline economics and government policy, so his prediction should be understood as an industry warning rather than a fixed price increase already scheduled for 2027.
Still, the underlying pressure is real. Reuters reported that O’Leary expects elevated fuel costs to remain a serious issue into 2027, while Euronews cited both the sharp increase in jet fuel prices and the weaker hedging position facing European carriers next year.
For Americans planning a Europe trip, the era of assuming there will always be another ultra-cheap flight available at the last minute may be getting harder to rely on. If Ryanair’s CEO is even close to right, 2027 could become the year travelers finally start paying noticeably more to hop between European cities.
